Preseason Rankings
Umass Lowell
America East
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#279
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.8#61
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#188
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#326
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 9.5% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 29.2% 61.9% 28.3%
.500 or above in Conference 44.9% 67.0% 44.3%
Conference Champion 4.1% 9.8% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 3.3% 11.0%
First Four1.3% 1.7% 1.3%
First Round3.7% 8.5% 3.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Neutral) - 2.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 48 - 59 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 22   Florida L 64-84 3%    
  Nov 29, 2020 17   @ Ohio St. L 63-87 1%    
  Dec 09, 2020 163   @ Northeastern L 71-80 20%    
  Dec 19, 2020 96   Vermont L 70-79 21%    
  Dec 20, 2020 96   Vermont L 70-79 21%    
  Dec 27, 2020 224   @ Stony Brook L 73-79 31%    
  Dec 28, 2020 224   @ Stony Brook L 73-79 32%    
  Jan 02, 2021 217   NJIT W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 03, 2021 217   NJIT W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 09, 2021 267   Hartford W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 10, 2021 267   Hartford W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 16, 2021 329   @ Binghamton W 80-77 59%    
  Jan 17, 2021 329   @ Binghamton W 80-77 58%    
  Jan 23, 2021 202   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 24, 2021 202   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 30, 2021 264   @ Albany L 74-78 39%    
  Jan 31, 2021 264   @ Albany L 74-78 38%    
  Feb 18, 2021 328   Maine W 77-68 76%    
  Feb 19, 2021 328   Maine W 77-68 76%    
  Feb 27, 2021 205   @ New Hampshire L 72-79 30%    
  Feb 28, 2021 205   @ New Hampshire L 72-79 30%    
Projected Record 8 - 13 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.1 2.4 1.0 0.2 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.6 5.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 6.3 5.5 1.5 0.2 15.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 6.2 5.3 1.1 0.1 15.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.1 4.2 0.8 0.0 14.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.7 0.9 0.1 6.4 9th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.2 5.3 8.2 10.8 12.7 13.5 12.0 10.7 8.5 6.1 3.8 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 84.9% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
13-3 58.2% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.1
12-4 27.1% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-5 7.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 55.3% 55.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.3% 35.4% 35.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-2 1.0% 29.8% 29.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-3 2.4% 24.5% 24.5% 14.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.8
12-4 3.8% 13.1% 13.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.3
11-5 6.1% 11.1% 11.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 5.4
10-6 8.5% 8.6% 8.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 7.8
9-7 10.7% 3.8% 3.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.3
8-8 12.0% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.7
7-9 13.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 13.2
6-10 12.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 12.5
5-11 10.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.7
4-12 8.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.2
3-13 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.3
2-14 3.2% 3.2
1-15 1.2% 1.2
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%